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Apple will coast then decelerate... just like all the others before it.

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When you build up a company around one person, what is more important to have? The company and all it's suppliers, IP, skillset, management and engineering expertise?

 

or that one person that had the foresight, passion, drive, innovative mindset and sheer brilliance to build that company in the first place?

 

The person or the company? Which is it?

 

Well that is a very difficult question to answer - perhaps there is no one answer. It most likely depends on the situation of each company - so granted it's not really answerable in the general sense... an example of where it most likely would favour the company would be in a manufacturing industry where innovation is very clinical and needs little to no inspiration - or in textiles, shipping, mining, electricity provision, telecommunications etc, etc... basically where risks are something spoken of as merely exploits of the weekend fishing expedition over coffee in the board room. There, the person who built up the company would most obviously not really be needed - their input becomes less and less important the larger the company gets and simply needs to follow the well established rules and regulations laid out for marketing, logistics etc... and thus most likely the company would just run better if they got the best people they could get to fulfil the top management roles and that would be that.

 

But that answer favours industries that remain relatively flat - relatively benign. The mining industry was the way it was today in 2012 as it was in 2002... and largely the way it was in 1982 and 1962 and 1942... and even if the machinery and technology used to dig up the "stuff" out of the ground has incrementally gotten better and more high-tech... the purpose, drive and requirements of the company hasn't changed in centuries. That is: Dig up the ground.

 

The flip-side to that are industries whose landscapes are in a flux. Where markets are being jostled, reinvented, recapitulated, reborn, renewed. Where exactly what the goal is going to be is unclear. Where what constitutes the role of the company or organisation is uncertain because, well, it's "new" and there's little or no data to support the notion from fact or fiction... or if there are facts their extrapolations indicate that such a market shouldn't exist or is a high-risk endeavour... this is what we are seeing in the IT industry in general. The manufacturing electronics industry. The software industry... and Apple have their limbs planted in each of these areas quite firmly.

 

So, it seems that there is a trend with these highly evolving markets... with respect to their founding fathers - their leaders that give up the reigns of the company for one reason or another and it appears that, under these circumstances, without the guidance of their founding visionary in such a fast paced and changing market, a company loses innovation, direction and it's competitive edge and slowly but surely relegates itself to "just another player".

 

Examples? Here they are:

 

Microsoft. Founding visionary: Bill Gates.

Bill left Microsoft to pursue philanthropy and since his departure the company has stagnated, riding mostly on their Windows and Office products ubiquitous successes established beforehand. They were late to the phone party and missed the tablet revolution.

 

Sony: Founding visionary: Akio Morita

After he stepped down as Chairman in 1994, Sony began a slow decline into mediocrity. Their heady days of walkman behind them, they missed the sea changes of the MP3 revolution.

 

Apple: Founding visionary: Steve Jobs

In 1985, Steve Jobs was kicked out of Apple. The company, in his absence, began to innovate less and less and it slowly but surely declined until it was near bankruptcy. Of course, Steve took the helm again in 1997 to the surprise of many in the industry and spearheaded the greatest resurgence in the history of the modern age. Unfortunately due to the recent situation of Steves health, Apple is once again on it's own. It's latest refresh of products give some indication (speculatively) that history is going to repeat itself.

 

 

Becuse of these circumstances and because of the recent announcements made by Apple which seem rather timid by comparison to the previous years... I'm guessing that Apple are just coasting... just like Microsoft and Sony did. I think they are headed for a slow but sure decline. What do you think?

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I agree with the title, but disagree a bit with your argument.

 

In support of your argument: Apple. Definitely.

Against your argument: Google.

 

Google to me has the right balance. I've heard rumours from inside that when the CEO changed, the inner workings changed and there was less focus on Google Friendliness and more on money making, but every change in CEO heralds a change in direction, regardless of how small. The most important thing from all of this though, with the exception of the people in tech, nobody knew from the outside that the CEO had changed. Share prices recovered and are at an all time high. Google effectively own the internet and because they don't need a figurehead to do it, they repeatedly come out on top.

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Google doesn't follow that pattern though. Larry and Sergei were always at Google. The companies that fail do so because their founders leave or die. Googles founders never left! Eric Schmidt was appointed for a few years voluntarily by the google boys because neither Larry nor Sergei trusted themselves to steer the ship until they levelled up.

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I think it will still be quite a while until Apple drops off, They have some 10 year plan and many things in the pipeline that Steve Jobs thought of that he wants accomplished in that time frame. Essentially the same people are running the company such as Tim Cook, Jonathon Ives, Scott Forstall, Phil Schiller etc.. Many of them have been there since the return of Steve Jobs and has had a major role in the "coming back" of Apple. I know where you are coming from in the fact that companies need a CEO with "a vision" and to "push the boundaries". At the same time in saying this I am still optimistic whether Apple's momentum will be maintained even with the Steve Jobs' plan in place.

 

Also on the part of Microsoft I can't really say that Bill Gates "innovated" much towards the end of his CEO position, Vista anyone? I think he rode the windows wave most of the way through the 90's and 00's, What real innovative consumer products did they release besides the original Windows and I wouldn't call the "Xbox" innovative. Since Steve Ballmer took over we have started seeing some major changes to microsoft such as WIndows mobile, Windows Metro/8, New Surface tablets etc so it seems that a change in CEO is reinvigorating Microsoft again or it's possibly a "we have to do something" move? Either way they are going in a better direction than when it was in Bill Gates' reign.

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One thing that I think most people easily forget is how little Steve Jobs had to do with Apple in the years leading upto his death.... I think a bigger fall could be that of Pixar of which he played a larger roll in.

 

Other then a presenter like Gillard is to the Labor party, I wonder how much Steve Jobs did in his last 5 years with apple in regards to leading and directing. Not saying that he was not pivotal in their "re-growth" just how long has apple truly been operating without Steve Jobs.

 

His illiness was long lived, and there would have been much time to work on a succession plan that should have been means tested before his death. It's just smart business really.

 

In all reality, Apple have the funds to f**k up a few times till they start spending more then the interest returns of their slush fund.

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Brendon i don't think we are talking about Apple's ability to stay operating but more about it's ability stay ahead of the competition.

 

I agree with the idea that they have been without Job's leadership for years, but that is already evident in their lack of innovation. They have done nothing special since the release of the first iPad.

 

I think it will take about 10 years for Apple to fall in line with IBM and Microsoft as another has-been of the technology world.

The company will be around for decades to come and could possibly never again reach the near death it had in the 90's, but probably won't hold the lead for much longer, and probably won't get it back either.

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i was gonna say something pretty much what chappy said..

 

we are talking more about the ability to launch ground breaking life changing products then we are any of these companies withering and dying, all of the companies mentioned, apple included, have in there life time created a product that was the life changing thing of its time and have been able to live off that success whilst trying to release other products with the hope fo them being the same big thing. apple have under the helm of steve jobs being able to pull off a couple of monumental "IT" products rather then just the one singular one (microsoft>windows) or sony (smaller innovations in already thriving markets), wether or not they can keep that up without steve jobs is a good question.

 

steve jobs's biggest skill was knowing how to package things for the mass market including final price and build quality which coupled with his borderline crazy attention to detail and definitely crazy methods of getting people to do what he wants, gave apple products that weren't necessarily new but were built and packaged in a way that made the previously existing versions look meagre and more importantly made them highly useable and sell like hotcakes, the ipod for instance was far from the first portable music player but it was the jobs's spin on the it that hit the right notes and made it what it is today. the chances of finding a guy like that again is pretty slim, the chances of a board of directors giving that guy any real power in a company are even slimmer.

 

all any company with the resources needs is to find the right guy and then have the balls to let him do something like the ipod and of course have that something be a hit, apple is no exception, microsoft appear to be doing that with windows 8 but i doubt that will be the hit they're hoping for the key there is to not let that stop them trying, apple need to allow budding steve jobs a likes in the company to thrive and give them a chance.

 

the best example i can think of for this is google and its 20% time, they let all there employees have a crack at a making the next big thing and theres been quite a few success storied come from it, no ipod level hits yet but at least the opportunity is there

 

 

also i think your wrong about other industries being flat, more like just complacent, mining for instance the companies there have just been complacent digging the ground, why not dig the ground of another planet or an asteroid, that innovation is on its way but not from mining companies who have more then enough resources for it

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Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks.

 

It's clear that AAPL stock has declined - a total of almost 12% since the launch of the iPhone5, mapgate, chinagate and now verizongate. I'll leave out the nefarious details - the point being the slide is continuing.

 

Stock did have a slight uptick because of the possibility of an iPad mini very soon. Also, releasing their earnings could also either bolster or weaken their share price and market cap... which has shrunk from an incredible $644bn only a few months ago... to now $593bn (was $590bn a day ago before the "uptick").

 

Some analysts are now getting themselves some good deal of traffic by writing articles that prey on peoples fears. Apple stock continues decline... or whatever title in a similar vein and you've got a massive spike of pundits vying to rip your article to bits. Is it time to leave the AAPL bandwagon, or "Apple Stadium" as I'd rather call it.

 

Stock is like a stadium. It slowly starts to fill up and you've got no problems getting in because everybody is entering in dribs and drabs along a very long expansive window of opportunity. You're in early - awesome. You're coming later - well, you'll still get something good.

 

Then, the game is over... time to leave. It's a stampede. The trick is... to exit JUST before things become obvious the game is up. So... that is the million dollar question. Actually, for Apple, the million dollar question - or "Trillion" dollar question is : What is the next big thing? Cos Apple doesn't do very well in established markets where competitors are catching up. The competition has arguably caught up already. So they must either super-innovate and come up with something that is not a Tablet nor a Phone... or they need to fiercely compete with the rest of the world combined who are either on microsoft's fledgeling platform or the super-established Android platform that is now enabling devices in a 4:1 ration (4 android devices activated for every 1 iphone / ipod / ipad).

 

Must... wait... and... see.

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Wow... just wow. I'm looking at the ticker which is active at the moment and a whole 2% has been shaven off the share price since trading began a few hours earlier.

 

Market cap as of writing right now? 580 billion. Yep - 10 billion just got wiped off just like that. That brings the total fall from the record high to 64 billion dollars.

 

This was them LESS than 1 month earlier (25th sep)

aapl_down.png

 

Ouch!

aaol_down2.png

51 billion *snap* gone... just like that.

 

update: just finished trading and... holy crap. down 3.6%

aapl_down3.png

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I believe the dip in stock price will be short lived, analysts are still predicting $1000 share price by next year even with all the "gate-isms".

 

We'll have to wait for Apples media event & earnings report next week to see what pans out, but I think it will jump back up pretty quickly.

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Apple won't die, but they seriously have to lift their game as far as innovation is concerned.

 

Every product they bring out now is just a refresh or copied from elsewhere on the market. As buoy said, they are stalling. They have fallen the same way Microsoft did in the early 2000's by just buying out technology. If Apple continue this trend, they will end up like Microsoft fighting back.

 

Just look at the last few iPhones, and even iPads! Nothing really new innovated just from Apple. The UI is intuitive, but in essence it's still exactly the same as it was 5 years ago.

 

Google are a totally different story. Their innovation continues to thrive, with thanks to their open development programs. They will be, sorry, they ARE the new biggest mover.

 

 

Apple has planet sized goodwill that will keep them going for many years to come, but unless some innovation is done they will be stagnant.

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Very true. Goodwill can only get you so far... just ask RIM with BlackBerry.

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And for another update on the AAPL stock price... (note: peak is from release of iPhone5)

 

Trending: downward.

 

and this analysis from a pundit suggests it's not necessarily Apple but the market's perception of Apple (no new breakthrough product, exponential growth can't continue forever) that is indeed why there is a downturn.

 

expectations are part of the problem. It is not that Apple is anything but a great and massively profitable company. It is just that it is impossible to maintain exponential growth forever. Reviewers seemed to go out of their way to find fault with the i-Phone 5 and there are many people pointing out that the “i-Pad Mini” is the result of AAPL reacting to the success of their rivals, rather than leading the way. The smaller tablet may be successful and Apple’s earnings may be stellar, but the mood seems to have changed. Analysts will be highlighting, rather than glossing over, any weakness. It is hard not to disappoint traders accustomed to regular, massive beats in revenue and EPS.

The point is that, as far as traders are concerned, perception is reality. If it is perceived that growth is slowing, or that there is no revolutionary new product in the pipeline, the stock will suffer, maybe unjustifiably. AAPL is a solid company that will offer long-term investors a decent return for years to come, but it is no longer the darling of the markets that can shrug off bad news, whether that is about the company or the economy in general. Apple is being punished by the market, not for their own success, but for the market’s own previous ‘irrational exuberance.’

 

 

Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-10/apple-aapl-a-victim-of-its-own-success.aspx?storyid=184433

 

1025.jpg

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Just another chime in to note the CONTINUED downward trend of AAPL - now trading in the high 500s and at ~560billion market cap (from a peak of 644 billion 6 weeks ago).

 

Even stronger recommendations to NOT buy AAPL stock with the shakeup of upper management, the sacking of Scott Forstall, underwhelming pricepoint and screen of the iPad Mini and general averageness of the iDevice lineup.

 

Apple Inc. (AAPLtiny-fullstar.giftiny-fullstar.giftiny-fullstar.giftiny-halfstar.giftiny-blankstar.gif) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.4 out of 5 stars.

http://www.dividend.com/blog/?p=55746

 

 

UPDATE: As of 2:55 AM AEST, Apple has officially crossed the $564/share mark, making it in to BEAR territory (20% drop).

 

Since the stock is still technically 39% up this year, and with no clear sign of a return to awesome performance, 39% is looking like a pretty good exit strategy for many pundits holding apple stock... hence the massive sell-off we're seeing.

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/11/07/apple-slide-hits-bear-market-territory-down-20-from-peak/

 

TOTAL DESTRUCTION!

 

 

... and, I have to say it, but I *told* you so.

aapl_down4.png

aapl_down5.png

aapl_down6.png

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aapl_down8.png

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I believe the dip in stock price will be short lived, analysts are still predicting $1000 share price by next year even with all the "gate-isms".

 

We'll have to wait for Apples media event & earnings report next week to see what pans out, but I think it will jump back up pretty quickly.

 

$537

 

how bout dem gate-isms ?

 

Really I don't understand why you keep giving Bill Gates shit

 

at least our overlord is still alive

Edited by sid280

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aapl_vs_rca.gif

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-apple-walking-in-rcas-footsteps-2012-11

 

A

pple's share price was leading the stock market's rally earlier this year, and lately it has been leading the correction. This fall from grace for the stock of

Apple

has a lot of analysts puzzled, because Apple the company still appears to be doing great. It has huge sales on smart phones and tablets, which are things that barely existed just a few years ago, and which thanks to Apple are now becoming ubiquitous.

But regardless of what any person says about the company's prospects, the message from the share price is that something is wrong. We don't have to know what that something is in order to receive that message, and often the revelation of what the trouble really is comes months after the trouble shows up in the share price.

Of greater interest to me than Apple's performance over the past 2 months is the shape of its price plot over the past few years. It strongly resembles the share price pattern of one of the tech darlings from a few decades ago, namely the Radio Corporation of America (RCA). Radio was the hot new technology of the 1920s, after the US government released restrictions on its use following World War I. In a very short amount of time, radio stations sprang up around the country, and most homes owned a radio to listen to programs like Rudy Vallée, Your Hit Parade, and Amos 'n' Andy. RCA was born out of General Electric, as opposed to being born in a garage in California like Apple, but its rise was just as meteoric as Apple's has been lately. And that's where the worry comes.

 

 

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I think it's not so much what Apple is doing wrong, it's moreso what all the others are doing right.

 

Let's be honest here. The average customer looks at the iPhone5, iPhone 4S and iPhone4 as the "same" product. It hasn't evolved. Plain and simple. In fact, you could take the position that the iPhone hasn't changed much since it was released back in 2007. Same icons, same UI, same everything. Just minor improvements here and there.

 

I think this is why Analysts are puzzled. Apple is losing its coolness. The whole supply chain debacle does contribute, yes... but with fkup after fkup apple supporters have deserted the company before and they will do it again.The exodus is growing. Analysts need to factor that into their equations.

 

I was just talking to a friend this afternoon and we brought up the whole iPhone sux thing. I said "you can't even have wallpaper on the damn phone". And his response, to my amazement O_o was... "yeah... and you can't even change the ringtone!"

 

Wait... what? Are you serious? You can't even change the ringtone? O_O if so, that's crazy.

 

 

 

 

Now look at Windows Surface Phone and, gosh, Android. It just feels more exciting. Apple isn't doing anything wrong. They are just not doing enough of the stuff that made them awesome a few years ago. That awesomeness is gone.

 

So many videos around the net but this one seems to sum it up pretty well:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0flisPx9NOQ

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With Forstall now gone I think you'll see a bigger push to create something fresh on the OS front, Jonathan Ive's is now head of ios software design and will most likely make some major changes "sooner" rather than later: including stripping out some of the butt-ugly Skeuomorphic design Forstall loved so much.

I 100% agree that iOS has become stale compared to the competition... I actually like Windows phone 8 and would prob pick up the new Lumia if I wasn't so heavily invested in Apple's ecosystem, but to say that Apple's device have been the "same" is a bit of an over-statement, sure the fundamental look of the OS hasn't changed but the functionality has changed quite a bit. Sure they aren't pushing the envelope when it comes to radical software functionality but what they do put out there works smoothly & flawlessly 99% of the time from day 1.

Hardware wise I haven't seen another phone manufacturer come close to Apples design ethics, sure the new Nokia's are pretty nice and HTC has put out some pretty good stuff but they still pale in comparison to Apples offerings.

 

In the end this competition can only be good for Apple and their customers as they "now" are starting to realise they aren't the be-all and end-all of technology companies.

 

P.S. You can change the wallpaper and ringtones on iOS, I think your friend was either on iOS2 or on crack haha

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Sure they aren't pushing the envelope when it comes to radical software functionality but what they do put out there works smoothly & flawlessly 99% of the time from day 1.

 

The problem isn't so much they are missing radical functionality they really fail at basic functionality. Having to use itunes is absolutely ridiculous for starters. Having to jail break the device just to do something as standard as rsync. Have they even got drag and drop functionality yet. Also having to pay to run software you develop on your own device is just ridiculous. I don't understand why consumers put up with such crap. I mean they buy the device and let Apple bully them into doing things their way. Apple needs to learn they are getting paid for the service/hardware they are providing and they cant just dictate what the person paying for the device can do. Apple act like they are doing you a favour, it is like they are failing to realise that the consumer is buying the device of them (they work for the consumer) and now they are the little guy in the phone space so they simply cannot bully the market.

 

Hardware wise I haven't seen another phone manufacturer come close to Apples design ethics, sure the new Nokia's are pretty nice and HTC has put out some pretty good stuff but they still pale in comparison to Apples offerings.

 

They produce the most looking polished device, but in terms of hardware innovation they are typically trailing. Just comparing them to Samsung, when a new Galaxy comes out it sets the standard when it comes to hardware, and several months latter Apple tends to catch up a little. If they want to remain competetive, they really should at least try to push ahead and not just catch up. Maybe lower the profit margins and try to put up a serious fight on the hardware front.

 

The other thing looks aren't everything, my wifes iphones always play up after about a year. One thing is producing a good looking device, but lasting build quality doesn't seem one of their strengths.

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They produce the most looking polished device, but in terms of hardware innovation they are typically trailing. Just comparing them to Samsung, when a new Galaxy comes out it sets the standard when it comes to hardware, and several months latter Apple tends to catch up a little. If they want to remain competetive, they really should at least try to push ahead and not just catch up. Maybe lower the profit margins and try to put up a serious fight on the hardware front.

 

 

 

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6330/the-iphone-5-review/11

 

go back a page to see general/CPU performance for browser based stuff.

 

nearly every single graph on that page has the iphone 5 and the 3rd gen ipad at the top.

 

on paper, android devices are very impressive, touting big numbers when it comes to CPU speed, cores and RAM. unfortunately numbers alone do not translate directly into better performance, or even a better experience.

 

maybe samsung should learn how to make efficient handsets that do more with less than just brute forcing with more cores and cycles (and still failing to beat it). to me,

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They don't really take into account screen size in that benchmark.

It is also interesting that they don't seem to have included any Android tablets.

 

Then there is the operating system to consider and how much effect that has on performance.

 

Might as well make a chart showing why an Apple is so much better than an Orange.

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They don't really take into account screen size in that benchmark.

It is also interesting that they don't seem to have included any Android tablets.

 

Then there is the operating system to consider and how much effect that has on performance.

 

Might as well make a chart showing why an Apple is so much better than an Orange.

 

some of them are normalised using off-screen 1080P performance as the benchmark.

 

 

If anything it proves that having an OS and hardware designed to work together is a more efficient method than off the shelf parts.

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That has always been the argument for Apple products. It ended up being a pointless bragging right on the Mac, i guess we shall see if the same thing happens on mobile devices.

 

I suspect the market will give Apple the same answer that it did in the 90's when they tried the EXACT SAME approach:

"what good is performance when you can't do anything with it?"

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That has always been the argument for Apple products. It ended up being a pointless bragging right on the Mac, i guess we shall see if the same thing happens on mobile devices.

 

I suspect the market will give Apple the same answer that it did in the 90's when they tried the EXACT SAME approach:

"what good is performance when you can't do anything with it?"

 

Can't do anything with iOS? That's the understatement of the year. If pushing processors to the point of inefficiency is your thing then go for it, I'll take smoothness and reliability any day of the week.

 

You have to realise companies design these devices for the "typical" consumer.. Not for tech junkies that think they're entitled to get access to every part of the OS and think everything should be free.

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Sorry but you have no idea what you're talking about

 

Can't do anything with iOS? That's the understatement of the year. If pushing processors to the point of inefficiency is your thing then go for it, I'll take smoothness and reliability any day of the week.

 

What exactly is "pushing processors to the point of inefficiency"?

 

Technically the less work a CPU is doing the less efficient it is, since CPU's are generally designed to run at 100% capacity all the time - its not possible to "push" or "work" a cpu to a less efficient state.

 

If you're talking about the efficiency of the software running on the phone, such as the OS, you must not understand OS's very well, CPU time allocation is handled at the kernel and both Apple iOS and Android use unix based kernels, Apple = BSD, Android = Linux. Considering that Linux is open source and kernel development is a HUGE part of the community, I would actually put my money on the Linux kernel being more efficient than the BSD one.

 

You have to realise companies design these devices for the "typical" consumer.. Not for tech junkies that think they're entitled to get access to every part of the OS and think everything should be free.

 

 

Not all tech junkies want everything for free - but when you go to Google and type "unlock" it suggests "unlock iphone" first, with no Android results at all, so they are either trying to jailbreak their phone (get access to every part of the OS) or unlock their phone (a service they think should be free).

 

Trying to promote a product by bagging out other products is a typical Apple tactic, it shows a lack of technical knowledge and doesn't really make the product look good at all.

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i dont like apple because my mum had an apple laptop but i couldnt play counterstrike source on it ages ago..

 

gay..

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Trying to promote a product by bagging out other products is a typical Apple tactic, it shows a lack of technical knowledge and doesn't really make the product look good at all.

 

tell that to android users who enjoy nothing more than bashing on apple.

 

i mean at least apples product speaks for itself. android is yet to impress me with anything.

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not even the features that apple use which first appeared on android?

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